Last week, in a bid to quell fears about Senate Bill 8, his signature school voucher proposal, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott brought his statewide "Parent Empowerment" tour to San Antonio.
During a nearly half-hour talk in the sweltering gym of St. Mary's Magdalene School, he pledged it wouldn't defund public school systems nor put an end to Friday night lights in the Lone Star State as critics have charged.
"I can assure you and can prove to you that's not going to happen," Abbott told the hundreds of parents gathered there last Thursday.
Despite the Republican governor's reassurances, experts say budgetary issues in other states that have passed similar school voucher measures suggest the plan will have dire consequences for public education in Texas.
Dismal track record
If passed, SB 8 would provide parents who pull their children out of public school an $8,000 annual check, known as an "education savings account." That money could be used to fund tuition at a private school or help cover homeschooling expenses.
Conservatives rationalize that pulling that money out of Texas' public school systems would force them to be more frugal with taxpayer dollars and more competitive with private schools, thereby increasing the quality of education overall.
"Historically, conservatives have held public schools to be suspect, in that they are large bureaucracies inefficient in their use of public monies, and therefore deserve to be challenged by charter schools and school vouchers," Southern Methodist University political scientist Cal Jillson said.
However, voucher skeptics, including Jillson, argue that states that have tried the voucher experiment on a large scale have ended up with lower test scores and worsened school performance.
The implementation of Louisiana's voucher program — among the most robust in the nation — yielded a loss of learning on par with that of Hurricane Katrina, according to Joshua Cowen, a Michigan State University professor who's tracked voucher performance.
Budget busts
What worries Cowen most is how the state can funnel tax money into creating a special stratum of private schools while maintaining its existing public education system.
"It's impossible for a state to, in the long term, stand up and maintain two education systems," Cowen said. "And if Texas passes this bill, that's what Texas is committing to, effectively just supporting two education systems financially."
In the 2022 fiscal year, K-12 education was Texas' largest expenditure, running $2,179 per capita, according to the Urban Institute, a nonpartisan economic and social policy think tank based in Washington, D.C.
Despite K-12 education being one of Texas' biggest annual expenses, its per-pupil spending is among the lowest in the country. The Lone Star State spent an average of around $9,900 per student during its 2022 fiscal year, well below the national average of $13,185.
Cowen argues S.B. 8 will force Texas to pay for K-12 twice, which he says is unsustainable. What's more, he warns it will force the state to make budget cuts elsewhere to continue the model.
"Politicians don't tend to worry too much about future costs of things for four years, five years down the line," he said. "But you can't pay to add another education sector. At least not without paying for it without having to cut the budget from the existing one."
Cowen pointed to Arizona's recently passed school voucher program, which could wind up costing taxpayers there around $1 billion more annually, according to an Arizona Capitol Times report.
"The cuts come by not keeping education spending up with inflation and keeping per-pupil dollars at their current average," Cowen said. "No politician is going to vote to cut per-pupil spending because they would get thrown out of office. They would just vote to not increase spending, even if costs are rising."
An apparent answer
In 2023, Texas is projected to boast a record $32.7 billion budget surplus. In other words, lawmakers are sitting on a windfall that could make the proposed school voucher program work — at least in the short term.
However, that kind of surplus doesn't happen often, and it may never happen again, observers caution. Instead of wasting the money on an unsustainable gamble like a school voucher program, Cowen suggests simply reinvesting some of that surplus into the public school system.
"More money does not always lead to better results," Abbott pronounced during his speech in San Antonio last week.
But the data beg to differ.
The states of New York, New Jersey, Vermont, Connecticut and Massachusetts spend the most per pupil on K-12 education in the nation, according to the nonpartisan Data Education Initiative.
Yet, all five rank among the country's best public school systems, according to a recent ranking college scholarship-resource platform Scholaroo.
Another thing those five states have in common: they don't operate voucher programs.
"People talk about education like there's something mysterious about it," Cowen said. "But, honestly, in most instances, things work better when you invest in them."
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