The Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade action will energize Democratic voters. What's that mean in Texas?

Until Politico dropped a bombshell draft opinion by the Supreme Court on Monday, it appeared that the 2022 midterms would be a largely be referendum on Joe Biden's unpopular presidency that would cost Democrats one or both houses.

Now, the prospect that the conservative-controlled court will overturn 50 years of precedent protecting abortion access is set to upend those expectations, according to political observers. Faced with a threat to reproductive rights, Democrats now see potential to re-energize party faithful and motivate those on the sidelines.

In Texas, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Beto O'Rourke quickly seized on the issue, tweeting just after the Politico report that it's “never been more urgent to elect a governor who will always protect a woman’s right to abortion.” The El Paso congressman has since scheduled a Thursday news conference on reproductive rights and will host a Houston abortion-rights rally on Saturday.

Meanwhile, progressive Jessica Cisneros, running to represent a U.S. House district that runs from San Antonio to Laredo, has flooded the airwaves with ads targeting the incumbent she faces in a May 24 runoff, Democratic U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar, over his abortion-rights record.

Cuellar was the sole House Democrat to vote against the Women’s Health Protection Act, a measure filed in response to Texas' near-complete abortion ban, championed by Republican Gov. Greg Abbott. The House bill, intended to codify abortion rights at the federal level, failed to gain Senate approval.

Despite the energizing effect of the Supreme Court threat to Roe v. Wade, political experts warned that it's unlikely to swing long-red Texas into the purple category — at least not this election cycle.

Even with a surge in spending by pro-choice and progressive groups, that money is more likely to flow into states where they see potential for decisive wins, said Trinity University political scientist Juan Sepúlveda, who served as Texas State Director for the 2008 Obama presidential campaign.

"It's not unlike a presidential campaign," Sepúlveda said. "You're not going to put equal amounts of money or comparable amounts into all 50 states. You're still going to have to be smart about where you target. And that comes back to there being not a lot of competitive seats in Texas right now."

Democrats and affiliated groups raked in more than $7 million since the leaked Supreme Court document surfaced. That comes as abortion-rights groups Planned Parenthood Action Fund and Emily’s List said they'll spend a combine $150 million in the midterms. If that pace continues, there could be lots of cash to go around.

"My gut tells me it could change the numbers if some of those dollars do come into Texas and they spend it to get people out," Sepúlveda said. "It narrows the margins. But if that doesn't happen, does the [abortion] issue alone get people out without someone organizing them? I have less doubt about that."

Much depends on how united Democrats can remain as the clock ticks down to November and whether voters' concern over abortion rights can overtake concerns about kitchen table issues such as inflation, Cook Political Report Editor Amy Walter wrote on Monday.

The most recent Gallup poll finds that 80% of Americans believe abortion should be legal under any or "certain circumstances." However, Walter pointed to a Texas Lyceum survey from March that showed just 5% of Texans consider abortion the top issue facing the state. More than a quarter cited the economy or rising energy costs as their biggest concern.

"Bottom Line: We are in the very early stages of what could be the first major change to abortion laws in 50 years," Walter wrote.  "As such, we need to watch the above benchmarks like salience and enthusiasm about the issue very closely."

Stay on top of San Antonio news and views. Sign up for our Weekly Headlines Newsletter.